Why Seeing Around Corners Matters Less Than Knowing When to Turn
A lesson from predicting the app economy in 1999 — and waiting a decade for the world to catch up.
In October 1999, I wrote a document originally titled Futuri — later known as the Affinity Model. It described, in detail, a unified mobile platform that would use wireless proximity detection to connect people, commerce, and experiences through handheld devices.
The document laid out proximity-based professional networking — being notified when someone with matching career interests was nearby. It described personal profile matching by location. It mapped out mobile event management, wireless restaurant discovery, in-flight services, and location-triggered commerce. It even included revenue models: branded advertising, subscriptions, and proximity-based offers.
Every single concept in that document became a billion-dollar industry.
LinkedIn. Tinder. Yelp. Eventbrite. Google Maps. OpenTable. In-flight entertainment systems. The mobile advertising economy. All of it was in that document — nine years before the iPhone App Store launched. A full decade before smartphones became mainstream.
The Technology Landscape in 1999
To appreciate the gap, consider what the world looked like when this was written. The internet existed, but it was tethered to desktops and dial-up connections — nowhere near mobile. The most popular mobile phone was the Nokia 3210 — no mobile internet, no GPS, no camera, monochrome screen. There was no WiFi standard. GPS wasn't available on consumer devices. The Palm Pilot was the most advanced handheld. Google was one year old. Amazon sold only books. Facebook wouldn't exist for another five years.
The vision was right. The infrastructure didn't exist.
The Curse of Early Vision
I presented the Affinity Model twice. First at a startup called Change.com, where the leadership said "interesting, what do you want to do with it?" — and moved on. Later at CCGXM, where it generated real excitement but ultimately couldn't be built with the technology available.
This is the part nobody talks about in innovation circles. The industry celebrates first movers, but the reality is more nuanced. Being first means nothing if the infrastructure can't support the vision. The Affinity Model couldn't be built in 1999 because the underlying technology — mobile broadband, GPS, app distribution, cloud computing — simply didn't exist yet.
The question isn't whether you can see the future. The question is whether you can recognise the moment when infrastructure, consumer behaviour, and market readiness converge — because that's when vision becomes product.
The Pattern, Not the Prediction
Looking back across my career, I see this pattern repeating. In 2019, I developed AR smart glasses concepts for airports and Caesars Entertainment — contextual overlays that would guide guests, surface personalised offers, and drive revenue through spatial computing. Ahead of its time then. Apple Vision Pro launched five years later.
That same year, I built virtual world concepts for HMRC and Adecco — immersive VR environments for government services and recruitment. Within weeks of completion, Covid shut down the world and validated the exact use cases these concepts addressed.
More recently, I built Haven — an AI companion for LGBTQIA+ youth — and discovered firsthand that the underlying language models weren't safe for vulnerable populations. That experience led to Cura Mirai, a patent-pending governance architecture for responsible AI. The industry is only now beginning to grapple with the problems Cura Mirai was designed to solve.
The Real Skill
The most valuable skill in technology isn't predicting the future. It's recognising the moment when the future becomes buildable — and having already done the thinking that lets you build it right.
The people who saw it coming 10 years ago understand the why deeply enough to build it properly when the when finally arrives. They don't just follow trends — they've been living with the problems long enough to understand the nuance that trend-followers miss.
That's the difference between a first mover and an architect. First movers arrive early and often burn out waiting. Architects arrive prepared — with the research, the user understanding, and the systemic thinking that turns opportunity into something real.
The Affinity Model taught me that. Every project since has reinforced it. Seeing around corners is a gift. Knowing when to turn is a skill.
And right now, in AI, AR, and spatial computing — a lot of corners are coming up fast.
Written by Sean Doherty
